A ‘perfect storm’ is brewing in Missouri

As this column is written, just prior to the Republican National Convention, the presidential race is in a dead-heat, both nationally and in Missouri. Nationally, the average results of the latest Gallup, CBS, Zogby, Harris, Los Angeles Times and Christian Science Monitor polls (taken August 9-24) show the presidential race in a statistical dead heat, with Democrat John Kerry holding a 46.8-46.2 lead over President George W. Bush, and Republicans anticipating a nice post-convention “bounce” in the polls for Bush. The Zogby Poll for Missouri released earlier this week shows Missouri to be the closest of all the “battleground states,” with Kerry holding a mere half-point lead over Bush. The latest Survey USA poll for Missouri (taken August 15-17) shows Bush ahead 48-47. It also shows Republican Sen. Kit Bond with a big 56-37 lead for re-election over Democrat Nancy Farmer, and Republican Matt Blunt with an early 49-44 lead for governor over Democrat Claire McCaskill. You can count on both the Bush and Kerry campaigns spending lots of their resources on Missouri.

The Oracle sees big changes on the horizon. Bush and Kerry would be better off spending their money elsewhere, because Missouri isn’t going to be close. The storm clouds will soon converge and create a "perfect storm" of factors favoring Missouri Democrats.

More people generally favor Democrats than Republicans and Kerry over Bush, but the only people that matter are those who actually vote. Historically, the classes that favor Republicans tend to turn out in greater percentages than the classes that favor Democrats, so Republicans often win more votes even when more people favor Democrats. This year is shaping up to be different. Here's what's coming:

Turnout will be the key, and a number of unrelated factors will encourage more Democrat-leaning voters to go to the polls. Several of them affect the turnout of African-American voters, who tend to give Democrats at least 90% of their votes. In Kansas City, African Americans are poised to retake that city’s congressional seat after 10 years in white hands. St. Louis County’s growing black population has one of its own seeking to retain the county executive’s office, which fell to the county’s only African American council member after the death of Buzz Westfall. In the City of St. Louis, African Americans feel threatened by business-backed “home rule” ballot measurers that would reduce the power of the city’s highest ranking black officerholder and make another’s office appointed by the mayor. Those ballot measures are also opposed by most Democratic Party regulars, who will be inspired to turn out on election day.

The ballot makeup also favors Missouri Democrats. As noted in my August 18 column, a petition drive succeeded in adding the ultra-conservative Constitution Party to the ballot, while petition drives for liberal independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader and the liberal Progressive Party failed. Disappointed conservative voters will have two ideologically appealing alternatives to Bush (Libertarian and Constitution), but Kerry will not have to fend off any progressive alternatives.

Any of these factors by themselves could be decisive in an election as close as what has been forecast. But the convergence of all of them creates the political equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane.

Furthermore, the Democratic appointed majority on the Missouri Supreme Court could implant an F5 tornado in the eye wall of that hurricane. If Congressman Lacy Clay’s lawsuit results in allowing “early voting” in the City of St. Louis, easily the state’s most Democratic jurisdiction, and especially if that privilege is limited just to that jurisdiction, the Democrats’ already decisive victory will become a rout.

These factors could have been offset if Constitutional Amendment 2 had been placed on the November ballot. Gov. Bob Holden deflected that ballot measure off to the August primary instead. That issue attracted thousands of extra voters into the primary, mostly opponents of “gay marriage,” and many of them voted to unseat Holden while they were there. The religious fundamentalists who came out specially to back Amendment 2 are one of the few segments of the Republican voting bloc whose turnout tends to be low. Those extra voters would have likely provided a pro-Bush impact if the measure had been voted on in November. Knowingly or not, Holden fell on his sword for his party.

The Oracle sees Kerry winning Missouri decisively enough to carry the rest of the statewide Democratic ticket to victory as well, even including the politically wounded McCaskill, U.S. senatorial underdog Farmer, and accidental state treasurer nominee Mark Powell.