St. Louis Oracle

St. Louis-based political forecasting plus commentary on politics and events from a grassroots veteran with a mature, progressive anti-establishment perspective.

Friday, January 25, 2008

Clinton, Huckabee lead Missouri primary

According to Rasmussen Reports, Democrat Hillary Clinton enjoys a 19-point lead and Republican Mike Huckabee has a single-point lead in the Missouri primary on February 5 (Super Tuesday). This mirrors earlier Rasmussen findings (as reported here) that those two candidates were their parties' strongest general election candidates in Missouri when matched against leading opponents from the other party.

In the Democratic contest the poll reported Clinton 43%, Obama 24%, Edwards 18%, and only 5% undecided. (An early misprint on Rasmussen's site gave Edwards 28% but still listed him third.) This 19-point deficit has to be disappointing to Obama supporters who have been hitting the pavement hard for their man in St. Louis. Obama was also the only candidate running ads in St Louis up until the day of the poll.

The Republican lead was within the margin of error, with Huckabee at 27%, McCain 26%, Romney 18%, Giuliani 7% and Paul 5%. These results have to be disappointing for Romney backers (Gov. Blunt, former Sen. Talent, speaker Jetton) and to Sen. Bond, who had publicly claimed his organization would carry Giuliani to victory, not single digits. The poll represents bases of spontaneous support, because to date no Republican candidate has hit the airwaves in Missouri. Advertising and momentum from next week's Florida primary could change things before election day.

Missouri's results are amazingly close those in Alabama, where candidates in both parties poll in the same order and the leaders get the same numbers (Clinton 43% and Huckabee 27%), except that McCain gets one more point there and ties Huckabee for the lead. We're a bellwether all right: as goes Missouri, so goes Alabama!

I would love to see results broken down by regions and age groups, but Rasmussen Crosstabs are available only to paying subscribers, and the Oracle is a certified cheapskate.

UPDATE: On Friday's 10:00 news, Channel 4 previewed results of similar polls that the station conducted jointly with the Post Dispatch, with complete results to be published in Sunday's Post. Their results are slightly different, with Hillary's margin only 13 points (44-31) and McCain leading the Republican contest (with no numbers or standings cited).


Anonymous Anonymous said...

McCain is tied in with the bananas crime family, the Keating (Damato Lobby to prevent Gramm Leach) S&Ls,, the Peter King Irish Illegal Aliens and Sinn Fein terrorists, Joe Dioguardi's Albanian Heroin Lobby - all of which are also tied together. He is the real Manchurian Candidate.

January 25, 2008 at 7:20 PM  

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