St. Louis Oracle

St. Louis-based political forecasting plus commentary on politics and events from a grassroots veteran with a mature, progressive anti-establishment perspective.

Monday, April 28, 2008

Obama stronger nationally against McCain

Here's something for undecided superdelegates to consider. According to comparative polling by Rasmussen Reports in 29 states, Barack Obama runs stronger against Republican John McCain than Hillary Clinton in 21 states, while Clinton is stronger than Obama in 8 states. Missouri, though, is one of Clinton's eight.

Perhaps more significantly, there are five states (Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington) whose electoral votes would switch depending on the identity of the Democrat nominee, and a sixth (North Carolina) where McCain beats one nominee and ties the other. In all cases, McCain wins against Clinton but loses (or ties) when Obama is the nominee.

Missing from the comparison are 21 states and the District of Columbia. Three large states are missing (Obama's home state Illinois, Clinton's home state New York, and Texas), but the only missing state whose electoral votes are realistically in play is West Virginia.

The Missouri results may be of greater interest to Missouri superdelegates than the national figures. While we may be about due for a new poll release, Rasmussen's most recent Missouri poll (March 26) shows McCain leading Clinton by 9 points and Obama by a whopping 15 points. Having to overcome a 15-point spread at the top of the ticket could be a daunting task for the rest of the Democratic statewide ticket and the party's efforts to retake the legislature. On the other hand, for African Americans (and progressive whites like me) who can't stand Democratic gubernatorial frontrunner Jay Nixon, an Obama presidential win coupled with a Nixon loss could be a win-win situation!