St. Louis Oracle

St. Louis-based political forecasting plus commentary on politics and events from a grassroots veteran with a mature, progressive anti-establishment perspective.

Friday, September 17, 2004

Polls understate Kerry's Missouri support

As mentioned at the end of the last post, trends in voter registration and likely voter turnout all favor Democrat John Kerry, and these developments probably aren’t reflected in current poll numbers. The Oracle has noticed that interest in the election is way up among people who ordinarily don’t vote, and that this interest is fueled by their animosity towards President Bush.

Kerry’s “527" allies funded by multi-millionaire Bush-hater George Soros and other well-healed rooters have fueled this coming surge. One such group,, has filled the airwaves with anti-Bush commercials that have helped create the anti-Bush animosity, while being perceived as sufficiently independent from Kerry (wink, wink) to avoid anti-Kerry backlash. Another group, America Coming Together, has seized on this animosity to register thousands of new anti-Bush voters.

These developments have not been fully reflected in the polls. Most polls report percentages of “likely” voters. If these are based on historical patterns, the polls are under reporting this significant block of voters. Historically, both African American voters and voters of all races under the age of 30 vote in smaller percentages than the rest of the electorate. But these voters are much more energized than usual this election, and both groups detest Bush.

Factors mentioned in prior posts intensify these trends here in Missouri. High-profile African American candidacies in Kansas City and St. Louis County and opposition to “home rule” charter amendments in the City of St. Louis are likely to swell African American turnout. Young voters who dislike Bush seem especially energized this year. While young voters are most susceptible to defecting to principled independent or third-party alternatives, the failure of Ralph Nader’s petition drive means there is no progressive alternative to Kerry on Missouri’s ballot.

This means that Kerry’s actual strength (especially in Missouri) is several points ahead of whatever the polls are showing.


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