St. Louis Oracle

St. Louis-based political forecasting plus commentary on politics and events from a grassroots veteran with a mature, progressive anti-establishment perspective.

Monday, October 11, 2004

Why John Kerry will win this year's election

Equitably speaking, neither George W. Bush nor John Kerry should be elected president this year. Both are ill equipped to serve for the next four years, and the Oracle is seeking someone else to vote for.

But this isn’t about what should happen, or what the Oracle wants to happen. This is about what will really happen, and as a practical matter, one of them is going to win. While pollsters still claim the contest is too close to call, the Oracle sees Kerry winning decisively in November.

Incumbency is usually a big advantage for a U.S. President. The American people are ordinarily loyal to their president, and willing to forgive many things. They forgave President Ronald Reagan for Iran-Contra, and they forgave Bill Clinton for Whitewater and a series of sex scandals. In the off-year election of 1998, they even punished the Republicans who impeached Clinton for the perjury and obstruction of justice that even Ralph Nader admitted were justifiable grounds for removal from office.

But these same American people have also unseated three of the past five incumbent presidents seeking second terms. All three losing presidents (Democrat Jimmy Carter and Republicans Gerald Ford and George Bush) had something in common with each other, the one trait about which the American people are unforgiving. Each was perceived by the public as being inept.

As the campaign winds its way through the so-called debates, the public is beginning to conclude that there is some substance to the comedic caricatures of George W. Bush that have appeared regularly on late-night television and elsewhere for the past four years. (The parallel comedic caricatures of Kerry as a stiff, flip-flopping, money-marrying gigolo will not harm him, because those perceptions only matter to voters who already favor Bush.) The Kerry campaign and its well funded “527" allies will drive home the “inept president” point as best they can without risking voter backlash. As voters make their final decisions, a majority will end up perceiving that Bush too is inept. Having come to the same conclusion about his father just 12 years earlier will help seal the deal.

2 Comments:

Blogger Steve in St. Lou said...

I agree with you Oracle, that John Kerry will win on November 2. However, it will be close in both the electoral vote and the popular vote. Here's my take on the Presidential race & Missouri state races:

Kerry wins the electoral vote & 'W' narroly wins the popular vote. 'W' takes Missouri, but by a narrow margin.

Matt Blunt wins the Governor's race because the electorate thinks they're voting for Daddy Roy Blunt -- and because John Hancock has done a masterful job of keeping Matt out of forums where he has to debate Claire McKaskill head to head and without talking points...

Bekki Cook wins the Lt. Governor's race

Robin Carnahan wins Secretary of State

Sarah Steelman wins Treasurer

Jay Nixon wins Attorney General

Kit Bond wins the US Senate seat, but not by the huge margins the polling data indicates.

Democrats pick up one or two Missouri Senate seats.

Democrats pick up 6-9 seats in the Missouri House of Representatives.

Claire could win the Governor's race and the Democrats could win back the majority in the House of Representatives if conditions are right... By that, I mean:

1) If the newly registered voters actually get out and vote -- 5% more of newly registered voters lean Democrat

2) If the African American community and urban voters in general turn out 'in force'

3) Bootheel voters actually vote their interest and support candidates committed to protecting Medicaid and MC+ for Kids, along with full funding of K-12 education. Getting out the African American vote in the Bootheel is critical. One or two House seats and a Senate seat are at stake here...

4) If the weather is favorable on Election Day. The Republicans get out their base -- no matter what! Recall the 2nd District US Representative primary in 2000 when ultraconservative Todd Akin beat two more moderate candidates in a district that is probably much more moderate than conservative. Akin won because, on that blustery day, his people got out to vote!

If all of those pieces of the puzzle fall into place, we'll see divided government in Jefferson City again! This time with a Democrat Governor, a narrow Republican majority in the Senate, and a narrow Democrat majority in the House.

October 13, 2004 at 9:28 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You might be wrong.

February 20, 2005 at 7:02 PM  

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