St. Louis Oracle

St. Louis-based political forecasting plus commentary on politics and events from a grassroots veteran with a mature, progressive anti-establishment perspective.

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Early trend from New Hampshire?

New Hampshire's two "midnight voting" towns have voted and reported:

Hart's Location:
This year: Bush 15, Kerry 15, Nader 1
Last time: Bush 17, Gore 13

Dixville Notch:
This year: Bush 19, Kerry 7
Last time: Bush 21, Gore 5, Nader 1

The significance is not that Bush has a combined 34-22 lead in these traditionally Republican towns, but that 4 voters (net) switched from Bush in 2000 to Kerry in 2004. These numbers are way too small for legitimate projections, but that's still 7 full percentage points moving from Bush to Kerry. Also noteworthy: This took place in rural locations, where Bush is thought to be strong, not from urban areas with angry minorities and youngsters and turnout assisted by George Soros' money.

It looks like the Oracle's early predictions that Kerry will win and it won't be close are right on.

1 Comments:

Blogger Norm Pressman said...

Oracle-You should go back to Delphi for some rehab!

November 3, 2004 at 6:31 AM  

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